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Stifel upgraded Deciphera Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:DCPH) to Buy from Hold, with a price target of $20 from $14, after reevaluating the competitive landscape for the 2L GIST market.
Despite a significant ~40% drop from its 2023 peak, the continuous expansion of Qinlock's core business, the prospective commercial roll-out of vimseltinib, and potential long-term gains from Qinlock label enhancements are encouraging signs.
Earlier, the analyst Bradley Canino said Qinlock's phase 3 for 2L exon 11+17/18 GIST was likely outperforming by Theseus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:THRX) pan-KIT method.
However, with the latter's termination, DCPH's strategy seems poised to rival sunitinib-based options.
The analyst anticipates that vimseltinib will likely match the cross-trial efficacy of Daichii's Turalio, a CSF1R inhibitor currently on the market.
Moreover, vimseltinib might have a more favorable safety record, potentially allowing it to sidestep the class-wide Black Box Warning and REMS program, the analyst writes.
While Turalio records sales of around $30 million annually without significant growth, Stifel analyst reckons that a more advantageous label could spur some market growth.
Yet, the projections for peak US sales stand at $75 million, a figure considerably lower than DCPH's $500 million US TAM estimate derived from healthcare claims data.
Price Action: DCPH shares are up 10.9% at $15.24 on the last check Thursday.
