Is MariMed A Safe Haven In The Wake Of Florida's Cannabis Legalization Defeat?

Author: Nicolás Jose Rodriguez | December 04, 2024 10:32am

Cannabis company MariMed Inc. (NASDAQ:MRMD) released its Q3 2024 results on November 6, announcing revised guidance for the fiscal year. While the company expects an 18–20% decline in EBITDA – down from its prior projection of flat to 2% growth – it raised its sales guidance to a 6–8% increase, up from 5–7%. These adjustments align closely with earlier projections from Zuanic & Associates, a cannabis industry research firm.

• Get Benzinga's exclusive analysis and the top news about the cannabis industry and markets daily in your inbox for free. Subscribe to our newsletter here. You can’t afford to miss out if you're serious about the business.

Guidance Adjustments Reflect Sector Trends

Zuanic & Associates’ October 16 report on MariMed highlighted its strategic focus on core markets, particularly in Illinois, where Zuanic's team recently visited the company's retail and cultivation facilities. Despite the downward revision to EBITDA, MariMed's raised sales expectations are noteworthy given broader sector headwinds. 

Cannabis stocks with exposure to Florida, for instance, have seen steep declines following the November ballot initiative's failure to secure a 60% majority. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE:MSOS) has dropped 33% in the past month, with AYR Wellness (OTC:AYRWF) and Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (OTC:TCNNF) plummeting 70% and 49%, respectively.

In contrast, MRMD has declined a more modest 12% over the same period.

Read Also: MariMed’s Q3 Revenue Slightly Up YoY As Net Loss Improves, Revises Guidance

Valuation: ‘The Discount Is Overdone’

Zuanic emphasized MariMed's attractive valuation relative to its peers. “On a spot EV basis, MRMD trades at 1x CY24 sales compared to 1.5x for the MSO average, with Curaleaf (OTC:CURLF) and Green Thumb Industries (OTC:GTBIF) at 2x,” Zuanic noted. “Its 8x CY24 EBITDA multiple is also favorable against the peer average of 11x. We believe the discount is overdone.” 

Zuanic rates MariMed as “Overweight,” citing its robust balance sheet and self-driven growth opportunities that are not reliant on state-level regulatory changes. The firm underscored that its investment thesis is grounded in fundamentals rather than speculative short-term opportunities. 

Sectoral Outlook Remains A Challenge

The broader cannabis sector continues to grapple with market volatility and regulatory uncertainties. While MariMed shows resilience, Zuanic noted the sector's dependence on macro-level changes. For investors, MariMed represents a fundamentally strong outlier, but industry-wide challenges remain a drag on stock performance.

With an “Overweight” rating from Zuanic & Associates and a valuation that stands out in a turbulent sector, MariMed presents an intriguing opportunity for long-term cannabis investors.

“MJ stocks with FL exposure have taken the biggest hit in the last month (the 11/5 ballot did not reach the 60% threshold); as a result, the MSOS ETF is down 33% in the last 30 days (AYR -70%; Trulieve -49%) vs. -12% for MRMD,” reads the report from Zuanic.

Read Also: Edibles Surge In The Heartland: MariMed’s Play For Missouri And Illinois Cannabis Dominance

Market Performance in IL and MD Fuels Growth

Illinois: 40-45% of sales 

• Despite a slowdown in market growth, MariMed is expanding operations (new cultivation facility, stores) and experiencing strong brand performance (InHouse vape, Betty’s edibles).
• Vape: InHouse – Top 11 brand (3.7% share)
• Edibles: Betty’s Eddies – Top 12 brand (3.5% share)

Maryland: Fast Growth

• Rapidly growing market with favorable pricing dynamics. MariMed’s expanded capacity and new stores position it for significant growth.
• Strong brand performance in edibles (Betty’s) and vape (InHouse)
• Edibles: Betty’s Eddies – Top 1 brand (11.3% share)
• Vape: InHouse – Top 7 brand (4.2% share)

Massachusetts: Focus On Optimization

• Limited growth potential. Focus on optimizing existing operations and maintaining strong brand positions (Betty’s edibles, InHouse vape).
• Edibles: Betty’s – Top 3 brand (7.5% share)
• Vape: InHouse – Top 14 brand (2% share)

According to Zuanic, Missouri and Ohio are expected to become larger contributors to sales by 2025.

Read Next: Can MariMed’s $7.7M Illinois Cannabis Expansion Turn The Tide In A $496M Market?

Posted In: AYRWF CURLF GTBIF MRMD MSOS TCNNF