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BofA Securities analyst Ross Fowler initiated coverage on California Water Service Group (NYSE:CWT) with a Buy rating and price forecast of $57, which implies an upside potential of 17%.
Per Fowler, the company is currently trading at the lowest valuation compared to other U.S. water utilities, even though its earnings outlook is improving and it has significant capital investment plans for 2025-2028. California Water also has extra financial capacity to increase capital spending if needed.
The analyst prefers a value-focused strategy within the water utility sector, believing that the premium prices for these stocks will eventually align with those of electric and gas utilities.
The analyst writes, California Water stands out as the most affordable U.S. water utility, trading at an 8% discount to the water utility sector and 19% below its closest competitor, American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR).
The analyst notes that the improved earnings outlook and potential capital spending growth could drive the stock’s performance.
Fowler forecasts California Water’s EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be $2.34, $2.63, and $2.85, respectively, with slight deviations from consensus (-1.4%, +5.6%, -1.4%).
California Water’s 2024 rate case filing in California reveals significant deferred investments, with capital spending plans for 2025-2027 nearly double those from 2022-2024.
While there is a higher risk of disallowances, the analyst conservatively assumes 80% recovery (compared to 90%+ in other California cases), which still leads to an estimated 8%-10% EPS growth and over 10% growth in the rate base through 2027.
Per Fowler, cash flow is expected to improve due to the 2021 GRC, and the company will likely need $50 million to $100 million annually in equity to maintain about 55% equity capitalization, which is above the current authorized level.
Price Action: CWT shares are trading higher by 0.14% to $48.71 at last check Wednesday.
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