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U.S. stock futures were higher on Thursday, the first trading session of 2025, after sliding on New Year‘s Eve on Tuesday. All four index futures advanced in premarket trade.
The S&P 500 index fell for the fourth session on Tuesday, which was its longest losing year-end streak since 1966. Despite missing the typical year-end Santa Rally, the S&P 500 index achieved 20% plus return for the second consecutive year in 2024.
The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.53% and 4.21%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31 FOMC meeting was at 88.8%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.74% |
| S&P 500 | 0.56% |
| Dow Jones | 0.45% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.55% |
In premarket trading on Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.66% to $589.97 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 0.83% to $515.48, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite experiencing a significant decline of around 176 points during the trading session.
Despite this downturn on the final trading day of the year, major indices still demonstrated strong growth in 2024. The S&P 500 surged by a substantial 24.01%, building upon its impressive 24.2% gain in 2023. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a notable 12.80% jump last year, while the Nasdaq Composite significantly outperformed with a remarkable 30.78% rally.
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) experienced a phenomenal year, with its stock price skyrocketing 178.78% and reaching new all-time highs in 2024. U.S. stock markets were closed on Wednesday in observance of New Year’s Day.
On the economic data front, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index showed a year-over-year increase of 4.2% in October, slightly moderating from the 4.6% growth in September. This figure aligned closely with market expectations of a 4.1% rise.
The FHFA house price index registered a modest 0.4% increase in October, marginally below market estimates of a 0.5% rise. The Dallas Fed general business activity index for Texas’ service sector declined to 9.6 in December, indicating a slight slowdown from the 9.8 reading in November.
Sector performance on the S&P 500 was mixed. Energy, materials, and real estate sectors led the gains. Consumer discretionary and information technology stocks bucked the overall positive trend, closing the session with losses.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.90% | 19,310.79 |
| S&P 500 | -0.43% | 5,881.63 |
| Dow Jones | -0.07% | 42,544.22 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.11% | 2,230.16 |
Insights From Analysts
The S&P 500 index created records in 2024 but failed to rally over the last four days of 2024. However, historical data shows that the index delivers positive returns over the next few days when it falls for at least three days during the year-end.
With 57 all-time highs and over 20% year-to-date returns for two consecutive years, the S&P 500 achieved several milestones last year. It also rose 53.2% in two years, recording the biggest two-year jump since 1997-1998.
The S&P 500 index witnessed its longest losing year-end streak of four days, the most since 1966 which saw five days of fall. However, the first month of 1967 saw 7.82% returns following the decline.
According to an X post by Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research, and the consecutive data shared by SubuTrade, the index has had a 6.24% average return over the next month after closing lower on the last three days of the year.
The U.S. stock market has experienced explosive growth, with its valuation skyrocketing to a record-breaking $63.8 trillion. This unprecedented surge represents a doubling of market capitalization in just 4.5 years, showcasing a remarkable upward trajectory.
In 2024 alone, the market added a staggering $10 trillion, according to The Kobeissi Letter. To put this into perspective, the combined market capitalization of China, Hong Kong, and Europe is roughly half that of the U.S. Furthermore, the “magnificent seven” tech giants boast a market cap exceeding the entire European market, emphasizing their dominant role in global stock markets.
Standout performers in 2024 included Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and Gold, while Oil and U.S. bonds delivered largely flat returns.
See Also: How To Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
A few important data points will be released in this truncated week that will help investors determine the future course of action.
Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 1.41% to hover around $72.73 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 0.50% to $2,654.31 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.12% to 108.612 level.
Asian markets were mostly lower on Thursday as Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s Kospi, China’s CSI 300, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined. Whereas, Australia’s ASX 200 index ended higher. European markets were mixed.
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Photo courtesy: Wikimedia
