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Editor's Note: This story has been updated to include the latest economic data and futures figures.
U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday after ending higher on Wednesday. Futures of major benchmark indices were up.
As early as next week, President Donald Trump may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss peace in Ukraine, according to a White House official. The potential meeting comes as global markets are preparing for possible sanctions on the oil trade.
Trump announced plans to put tariffs on semiconductor companies that aren’t building in the U.S. but introduced carve-outs for firms investing in the U.S.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.23% and the two-year bond was at 3.71%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 93.2% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.46% |
| S&P 500 | 0.62% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.77% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.92% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.61% at $636.67, while the QQQ advanced 0.63% to $570.88, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session:
Consumer discretionary, information technology, and consumer staples stocks recorded the biggest gains on Wednesday, helping U.S. stocks to settle higher.
Conversely, health care and energy stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.
The Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1% as upbeat corporate earnings and renewed investor optimism outweighed concerns over escalating trade tensions.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) led the charge among mega-cap names, jumping around 5% after the White House unveiled a new $100 billion manufacturing investment plan.
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) both reported better-than-expected financial results for their second quarters.
On the economic data front, the volume of U.S. mortgage applications increased by 3.1% in the final week of July, reversing a 3.8% decline from the prior period. Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a positive note.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.21% | 21,169.42 |
| S&P 500 | 0.73% | 6,345.06 |
| Dow Jones | 0.18% | 44,193.12 |
| Russell 2000 | -0.20% | 2,221.29 |
Insights From Analysts:
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates next month because it fears that inflation will creep higher, according to Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo.
In a new report, Wren states that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been adamant that the central bank is uncertain about the inflationary effects of tariffs that are ultimately implemented.
“The last thing the Fed wants to do is lower interest rates and then have inflation creep higher due to tariffs, or any other reason, forcing the U.S. central bank to backtrack and end up increasing rates,” Wren writes.
He notes that recent reports show that inflation is already creeping higher. Wells Fargo projects a 3.2% Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025, which is above the Fed’s target and noticeably higher than the 2.7% year-over-year increase through June. A significant part of that projection is due to tariffs.
Despite this, the market is currently putting a high probability on a September rate cut. As of this writing, fed funds futures contracts are reflecting a 98% probability of a cut. However, Wren believes this probability is too high, given that inflation is slowly moving higher and the unemployment rate is still low.
The Fed is also focused on the labor market. Last week’s July employment report showed a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, which Powell has described as “at or close to full employment.” While Wren believes the labor market will weaken in the coming months, he acknowledges that it would be difficult to call it “weak” at this time.
Wren’s report concludes with investment recommendations, suggesting that investors trim small-cap allocations and lighten up on the Energy and Communication Services sectors. He favors moving those funds into the Financials, Technology, and Utilities sectors.
Meanwhile, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, in a recent Substack post titled "The Paranoid Style in American Economics," deconstructed the president's claim that the report was "rigged," arguing that "every accusation is a confession."
Krugman argues that Trump's immediate dismissal of the data and subsequent firing of the BLS commissioner is a predictable pattern of a "paranoid style."
He highlighted a history of right-wing critics rejecting unfavorable economic data, such as "inflation truthers" during the Obama administration.
For Krugman, this behavior is a form of projection, and he had long predicted that an administration of this style would "begin manipulating economic data" as soon as it faced a negative report.
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Thursday;
Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.09% to hover around $64.42 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.18% to hover around $3,375.29 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.09% at the 98.0930 level.
Asian markets rose on Thursday, except India's S&P BSE Sensex and Australia's ASX 200 indices. Japan's Nikkei 225, China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi indices advanced. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.
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