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Cryptocurrency bettors substantially raised the odds that the U.S. and India would reach a tariff agreement in September, after President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed optimism about trade negotiations on Tuesday.
Trump said via his official Truth Social account that the two countries are negotiating "to address the trade barriers."
"I look forward to speaking with my very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in the upcoming weeks. I feel certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both of our Great Countries," Trump said.
Screenshot from Donald Trump’s Truth Social Account
Modi echoed the optimism in an X post a few hours later, stating that teams are working to conclude trade negotiations "at the earliest." He also said that he will be speaking with Trump.
See Also: Trump Tariffs Face Legal Reckoning As Supreme Court Grants Expedited Hearing
The remarks triggered a 9% jump in Polymarket odds of the U.S. reaching a tariff agreement with the South Asian country. The overall probability stood at 22% as of this writing
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a formal tariff agreement, defined as a publicly disclosed mutual agreement, is established before the month ends.
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket lets users bet on outcomes using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. While currently inaccessible in the U.S., the platform is expected to start operations following CFTC approval.
The increase in odds comes following a deadlock in trade discussions between the two countries.
Trump has been vocal about the trade imbalance between the two countries, criticizing India's high tariffs on U.S. exports. He accused India of helping Russia by buying discounted oil and “fuelling the war machine”, hence increasing the tariff rate to 50%.
The tariffs went into effect last month, with experts estimating that they might cost India $36 billion, or 0.9% of its annualized GDP.
The two parties have since resumed negotiations. India's Commerce and Industry Minister said that the deal is expected to be finalized by November.
Photo Courtesy: PJ McDonnell on Shutterstock.com
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