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Prediction markets indicated a strong possibility that the federal government would be shut down this week as President Donald Trump prepares to meet key members of Congress on Monday.
Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket priced in a 60% chance of a government shutdown by Oct. 1. Just the day before, the odds were at 70%.
More than $2 million has been wagered on the bet. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by Oct. 1.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. Polymarket is currently inaccessible to U.S. residents, but it is expected to start operations in the near future.
Similarly, bettors on the federally regulated prediction platform Kalshi saw a 58% chance of a government shutdown by Wednesday.
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The bets and predictions come ahead of a reported meeting between key Congress members, including the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Trump in the Oval Office.
If Congress fails to pass a continuing resolution or a full-year appropriations bill, non-essential government functions will halt. All federal workers, both furloughed and those still working, will not receive payment until the government reopens.
If the shutdown lasts longer than a month, the likelihood of wider economic ripple effects increases, including weaker consumer spending due to missed paychecks and postponed government investments.
Schumer recently blamed Trump for the impending shutdown, calling it a "Trump shutdown" and accusing him of weak leadership. Trump canceled a meeting with Schumer and Jeffries earlier this week.
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