MediaAlpha Sees Q4 Sales $280M-$300M vs $292.040M Est

Author: Benzinga Newsdesk | October 29, 2025 03:15pm

Financial Outlook

Our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 reflects continued positive momentum. We expect Transaction Value in our P&C insurance vertical to grow approximately 45% year over year in the fourth quarter, driven by strong carrier growth investment and continued share gains. We expect fourth quarter Transaction Value in our Health insurance vertical, which includes both Medicare and under-65 health, to decline approximately 45% year over year, driven primarily by under-65 health, which is stabilizing at a lower baseline.

On a year-over-year basis, we expect fourth quarter Transaction Value and Contribution from under-65 health to decline by $34 million - $38 million (61% - 68%) and $8 million - $9 million (80% - 90%), respectively.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, MediaAlpha currently expects the following:

• Transaction Value between $620 million - $645 million, representing a 27% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the guidance range. Excluding under-65 health, we expect Transaction Value to be up 38% year over year at the midpoint.
• Revenue between $280 million - $300 million, representing a 4% year-over-year decrease at the midpoint of the guidance range.
• Adjusted EBITDA between $27.5 million - $29.5 million, representing a 22% year-over-year decrease at the midpoint of the guidance range, including an $8 million - $9 million year-over-year decline in Contribution from under-65. Excluding under-65 health, we expect Contribution to increase by high single digits and Adjusted EBITDA to be roughly flat year over year. We expect Contribution less Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately the same as the Q3 2025 level.

Posted In: MAX