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Just 72 hours after Beijing suspended rare earth restrictions, the Pentagon committed $700 million based on supply constraints that may no longer exist. Here’s what investors need to know about the geopolitical bet underpinning Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies.
On November 3, 2025, the Trump administration unveiled a $1.4 billion partnership with rare earth startups Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies, calling it a decisive move to break China’s stranglehold on critical magnet supply. The Defense Department committed $700 million in loans and took warrants in both companies, while private investors added another $550 million.
There’s just one problem: the entire investment thesis (based on acute Chinese supply constraints) had evaporated three days earlier. That timing failure raises a bigger question: is the Pentagon solving tomorrow’s supply crisis or yesterday’s?
On October 30, following trade negotiations between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Beijing agreed to suspend its export controls on rare earth elements for one year. Trump declared the rare earths dispute “settled.” Yet just 72 hours later, the Pentagon finalized a massive bet that assumes Chinese supply will stay constrained indefinitely.
The timing raises questions about whether the government is pouring hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars into solving a problem that’s already being fixed through diplomacy, and what happens to these startups if Chinese rare earths flood back into global markets.
The Supply Constraint That Wasn’t
Rare earth permanent magnets are essential for everything from F-35 fighter jets to electric vehicle motors. China controls roughly 90% of global production. When Beijing tightened export controls in October 2025, panic spread through Western supply chains. Prices spiked. The case for domestic production seemed solid.
But geopolitics moves faster than industrial buildouts.
China’s October suspension of export controls changes the supply-demand picture. Vulcan Elements, a two-year-old startup with just six months of commercial production history, now faces competing on price against Chinese manufacturers with decades of operational experience and lower capital costs. The company is committing to produce 10,000 metric tons annually. But if Chinese supply normalizes and prices fall, can Vulcan operate profitably without continued government support?
The answer matters far less than who bears the consequences if it’s “no.”
The Commercial Viability Gap
Here’s what the press releases don’t mention: Vulcan Elements has secured “more than $10 million in deals with every branch of the military.” At current Pentagon consumption rates, that equals perhaps 50-100 metric tons of magnets annually.
The company is building capacity for 10,000 tons per year.
Where will the other 9,900 tons be sold? Commercial customers (automakers, wind turbine manufacturers, consumer electronics firms) have no loyalty to American producers if Chinese magnets are cheaper or more readily available. The unstated assumption is that the government will absorb excess production through stockpiling or mandated procurement.
That’s not building a competitive industry. That’s creating permanent dependence on taxpayer support. And if you’re holding rare earth equities, you’re betting either (a) China won’t reopen exports fully in October 2026, or (b) the government will absorb losses indefinitely. Consider which scenario is likelier before putting capital at risk.
The ReElement Gamble
ReElement Technologies received $160 million to supply recycled rare earth oxides. The catch, however, is that global recycling rates for rare earth elements currently sit below 1%. The company secured a $20 million equipment leasing facility just six weeks before announcing this partnership, suggesting it was still scaling basic infrastructure.
If ReElement cannot secure stable recycled feedstock (most magnets end up in landfills), its cost advantages evaporate and Vulcan loses its pricing edge. The government’s $80 million loan is a bet that commercial-scale magnet recycling can be built from scratch in 18-24 months.
The Moral Hazard of Government Warrants
Unlike traditional loans, this deal gives the Defense Department warrants (stock options) in both Vulcan and ReElement. The structure creates a conflict: the government now has financial incentive to make sure these companies succeed, even if market conditions no longer justify their existence.
If Chinese competition drives magnet prices below Vulcan’s break-even point, Pentagon procurement officers face a choice: let a struggling company fail and write off hundreds of millions, or prop it up through guaranteed contracts and subsidies. The warrants push them toward the latter, because government returns depend on inflated valuations.
This follows a pattern that’s been building. In July 2025, the Defense Department took a 15% equity stake in MP Materials (NYSE:MP). In August, the administration acquired 10% of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). The government is becoming a portfolio manager with direct financial interests in private companies.
When government becomes shareholder, market discipline disappears. Companies optimize for political metrics (tonnage produced, jobs created) rather than unit economics. A Cato Institute survey found that 60% of economists believe government equity stakes hurt good corporate governance.
The Warrant Valuation Wild Card
Government warrants create an incentive misalignment that extends beyond governance into valuation. If Vulcan shares trade at $50/share but the Defense Department’s warrant strike price is $20/share, the Pentagon holds $30/share of “free money” if the company reaches profitability, incentivizing support even when the business case doesn’t add up.
Key question for investors: At what Vulcan valuation do the government’s warrant returns exceed the political cost of failing to support the company? Once you identify that number, you understand the floor beneath the stock price and the ceiling on how much competitive pressure the company will actually face.
What Happens When the Truce Ends?
China’s export control suspension expires in October 2026. Here’s how each scenario plays out:
| Scenario | China’s Action (Oct 2026) | Magnet Price Impact | Vulcan Survival Risk | Investor Implication |
| 1: Full Reopening | Removes all export restrictions | -30% to -50% | High (price below break-even) | Equity becomes penny stock or acquisition target |
| 2: Selective Restrictions | Maintains controls on 5-7 elements | -10% to -20% | Medium (government subsidies likely) | Permanent dependency story; political risk |
| 3: Aggressive Tightening | Expands restrictions beyond 2025 levels | +20% to +40% | Low (margins expand) | Government warrants become highly profitable |
In Scenarios 1 and 2, private investors who piled $550 million into this deal may find themselves holding equity in companies that can only survive with perpetual government support.
What Investors Should Watch
By Q2 2026: Check Vulcan’s 10-K filing for customer concentration. If more than 70% of revenue comes from Pentagon/DoD, the company lacks commercial viability.
October 2026: Watch China’s decision on export control renewal. If Beijing fully reopens exports, magnet prices will signal whether U.S. producers can compete without subsidies.
2028 Election: Government equity stakes could face reversal under a new administration, creating valuation resets.
The Unspoken Winner: MP Materials
While attention focuses on Vulcan-ReElement, the real beneficiary is MP Materials (NYSE:MP). The Pentagon’s 15% stake and $110/kg price floor guarantee mean MP captures both margin security and upside optionality. If Vulcan struggles, DoD procurement shifts to MP. If Vulcan succeeds, MP supplies ReElement with rare earth oxides. Either way, MP gets paid.
It may be a better rare earth play than Vulcan despite receiving less media attention.
Where This Leaves Investors
The $1.4 billion Vulcan-ReElement deal may prove strategically valuable if China maintains long-term export restrictions and these startups mature into competitive manufacturers. But the timing (announced just 72 hours after China suspended the very export controls that justified the investment) suggests the government may be solving yesterday’s problem with tomorrow’s money.
Right now, we won’t know until China decides what happens next October. But here’s what matters more: neither the government, private investors, nor Vulcan management appears willing to publicly acknowledge this dependency. That silence, and the market’s apparent comfort with it, suggests rare earth equities are priced for optimism rather than scrutiny. Wait for Q2 2026 earnings calls before putting capital at risk.
Disclosure: This analysis assumes current industry structure and technology maturity. It does not account for potential breakthrough innovations in magnet alternatives, unexpected Chinese policy reversals, or geopolitical escalations that could rapidly shift valuations in either direction. The rare earth sector remains highly speculative; position sizing accordingly.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
