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U.S. stock futures rose on Monday after Friday’s mixed close. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.
Investors weighed two major developments out of Washington: a significant step toward ending the record-long government shutdown and a surprise stimulus proposal from President Donald Trump.
A key vote took place in the Senate on Sunday to advance a funding bill aimed at ending the 40-day government shutdown.
Meanwhile, Trump announced a proposal for a "$2,000 tariff dividend" in a social media post on Sunday; however, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested any dividend may arrive through other means rather than checks in the mail.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.13% and the two-year bond was at 3.59%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 64.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates during its December meeting.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.42% |
| S&P 500 | 0.97% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 1.52% |
| Russell 2000 | 1.11% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.98% at $677.52, while the QQQ advanced 1.52% to $619.02, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Sectors gaining on Friday included energy, utilities, and real estate, which recorded the biggest gains as most S&P 500 segments closed positively.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.21% | 23,004.54 |
| S&P 500 | 0.13% | 6,728.80 |
| Dow Jones | 0.16% | 46,987.10 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.58% | 2,432.82 |
Ryan Detrick of Carson Group views government shutdowns as short-term noise for investors, arguing the market's performance during the political gridlock is largely unchanged.
He notes that historical data show the S&P 500’s median return during past shutdowns was a mere 0.1%.
The real story, according to Detrick, is the powerful bullish precedent set after the government reopens. His analysis highlights that since 1976, the S&P 500 has posted an average gain of 12.3% in the 12 months following the end of a shutdown.
This post-reopening rally has a high probability of success; Detrick's data shows the market was positive 20 out of 22 times in the year after the government reopened, representing a 91% win rate.
While stocks were slightly positive during the current impasse, Detrick's perspective emphasizes that the significant move for investors is the historically strong rally following the resolution, not the flat performance during the event itself.
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Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.00% to hover around $60.35 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 2.01% to hover around $4,080.05 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $4,381.6 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.06% lower at the 99.5470 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 4.27% higher at $106,448.34 per coin.
Asian markets closed higher on Monday, including India’s NIFTY 50, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and China’s CSI 300 indices. European markets were also higher in early trade.
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