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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) shares have rallied following its third-quarter earnings release and acquisition update, with the stock posting strong one-week gains that highlight strengthening investor sentiment.
H.C. Wainwright & Co. reiterated its Buy rating on BigBear.ai, with analyst Scott Buck maintaining an $8 price forecast, citing resilient topline performance and growth catalysts from recent acquisitions and federal contract momentum.
The business posted revenue ahead of the analyst's expectation and highlighted key drivers across acquisitions and government demand.
Also Read: BigBear.ai Stock Roars Back On Naval AI Demo After Army Contract Setbacks
Shares jumped following the earnings print, reflecting the market's favorable reaction to the company's strategic positioning and growth ambitions.
Buck points to the pending acquisition of Ask Sage, an AI platform serving defense and other regulated markets, as the swing factor for 2026. He expects the target's SaaS-like profile to lift margins and contribute meaningful ARR once it is integrated, while near-term results may remain uneven as programs ramp up.
The analyst now models 2025 revenue of $131.1 million with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $32.3 million, reflecting government-related timing headwinds. For 2026, he forecasts $200.0 million in revenue and a narrowed adjusted EBITDA loss of $14.9 million as acquisitions contribute and scale improves.
Buck values BBAI at ~15x his 2026 revenue estimate, implying roughly 40% upside from the referenced share price. He argues that multiple expansion could follow clearer execution, stronger federal budget visibility, and evidence that recent deals are accretive.
The note flags integration and execution challenges, competitive pressure across AI/analytics, potential dilution if additional capital is required, cybersecurity exposure given the customer base, and listing risk if volatility intensifies.
Price Action: BBAI shares were trading higher by 8.55% to $6.198 at last check Tuesday.
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