| Ticker | Status | Jurisdiction | Filing Date | CP Start | CP End | CP Loss | Deadline |
|---|
| Ticker | Case Name | Status | CP Start | CP End | Deadline | Settlement Amt |
|---|
| Ticker | Name | Date | Analyst Firm | Up/Down | Target ($) | Rating Change | Rating Current |
|---|
JPMorgan analyst Zach Parham raised the price forecast for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) to $211 from $183 with a neutral rating following mixed third-quarter FY25 results.
Last week, the company reported revenue of $35.85 billion, which exceeded the analyst estimate of $32.55 billion. Adjusted EPS rose to $3.01 from $1.87 a year ago, missing the $3.15 analyst estimate.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company expects a total refinery throughput of 2.91 million barrels per day, including 2.68 million barrels of crude oil and 230,000 barrels of other charge and blendstocks.
Also Read: Biggest Mining Stocks Boom In 50 Years Is Crushing S&P 500—A ‘Once-In-A-Generation’ Trade?
The analyst writes that the company posted weaker-than-expected quarterly refining earnings, with consolidated capture at ~96%.
Sequential declines were due to pressured Gulf/West Coast margins, compressed jet/diesel spreads, lower clean product margins, and Galveston Bay hydrocracker downtime, adds the analyst.
Parham notes that MPC expects strong demand and tight supply to sustain elevated midcycle refining margins into 2026.
The company sees benefits including West Coast refinery closures, robust diesel and jet demand, wider crude differentials, and low ASCI prices, adds the analyst.
Parham notes that the company targets Operational improvements at Galveston Bay and Los Angeles refineries, along with seasonal inventory drawdowns in the fourth quarter.
Parham raised FY26 EPS estimate to $14.82 (prior $11.84; vs. consensus of $13.68) and CFPS of $33.69 (consensus: $30.05) on revised strip cracks.
The analyst sees FY26 refining utilization at ~93%, gross margins of $17.63 per bbl, and operating expense of $5.59 per bbl.
MPC will likely generate $6.5 billion in FCF, with share buybacks potentially rising (projected around $1.2 billion per quarter) in 2026, according to Parham.
Price Action: MPC shares are down 0.41% at $199.31 at the last chekc on Wednesday.
Read Next:
Image: Shutterstock
Posted In: MPC
