Bitcoin Down To $100,000 Is The Four-Year Cycle Breaking?

Author: Khyathi Dalal | November 13, 2025 12:18pm

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) signature four-year halving cycle, where market peaks follow 12–18 months after each halving, may be weakening or breaking entirely, according to top traders.

What Happened: Analyst Scott Melker, known as The Wolf Of All Streets, noted Bitcoin's previous tops occurred around 1,060–1,070 days after a major cycle low.

The market is now ~1,080 days past the last low, yet there's been no euphoria phase, altcoins remain quiet, sentiment is poor, and many investors exited early.

Melker suggested that traders may have front-run the cycle, diluting its impact. Once that premature selling fades, Bitcoin could shift into a mature, liquidity-driven phase that extends through 2026.

Also Read: Bitcoin At $103,000, Ethereum, Dogecoin Slip 2% But XRP Shows Strength

Why It Matters: Melker cautioned that the four-year model rests on just three data points, making it statistically weak. Indicators like MVRV, HODL Waves, and Puell Multiple, while popular, remain inconsistent.

"Sooner or later, the cycle will break," he said, whether due to institutional dominance or a new market rhythm.

Trader Decode echoed the sentiment, calling the halving a psychological relic, arguing Bitcoin now tracks global liquidity and demand, not its issuance.

Meanwhile, trader George dubbed 2026 Bitcoin's "revenge arc," saying it's now free to "cook its own timeline."

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Image: Shutterstock

Posted In: $BTC