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BofA Securities analyst Jean Ann Salisbury maintained a Buy rating for Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) on Thursday with a price forecast of $183 following its 2025 Investor Day.
The analyst writes that Chevron remains their top pick in the integrated and refining sector, thanks to near-term free cash flow potential and strong project execution, and today’s investor meeting reinforces FCF durability through 2030.
The company projects average annual adjusted EPS growth above 10% through 2030, rising over 14% with escalating real prices.
Also Read: JP Morgan Expected Big Surprises From Chevron — Instead, It Got Measured Strength
The company targets 2%–3% annual growth in oil and gas production through 2030 and targets total upstream production to grow 2%–3% at CAGR over the next five years.
The analyst writes that at the first Investor Day since acquiring PDC and Hess, management provided greater long-term clarity and reinforced confidence in the 2030 outlook, with figures near consensus.
In particular, Salisbury notes that the company highlighted expected free cash flow growth of over 10% CAGR through 2030, targeting $28 billion–$30 billion (vs. consensus $29 billion), and a steady share buyback range of $10 billion–$20 billion under a slightly lower Brent assumption of $60–$80/bbl (vs. prior $60–$85).
The analyst says that the update reflects improved efficiencies, with structural cost reductions, stronger Hess synergies, and lower annual capex.
Overall, the tone is positive, with clear visibility on growth drivers that could meet or exceed targets through the period, adds the analyst.
The analyst writes that investors will focus on Chevron's expected over 10% FCF CAGR through 2030, or over $8 per share—almost double 2025 levels—supporting dividend breakevens below $50/bbl (vs. BofA's $53/bbl in 2026).
With much of the 2030 plan already in motion, Chevron has potential upside if new opportunities emerge in the coming years, adds the analyst.
Price Action: CVX shares are up 1.52% at $155.66 at the last check on Thursday.
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Posted In: CVX
