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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is back above $95,000 amid Japan announcing a policy shift that could reshape global liquidity.
As reported by Reuters on Monday, Japan is assembling a fiscal package exceeding ¥17 trillion ($110 billion) as it shifts from three decades of deflation toward a higher-price, higher-rate environment.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the program is designed to ease household pressures and strengthen industries Japan considers strategically essential, including AI and semiconductors.
Officials describe the plan not as stimulus but as stabilization, aimed at helping households absorb rising prices without forcing the Bank of Japan into aggressive tightening.
Japan is attempting to balance cost-of-living support with long-term industrial security as global supply chains realign and geopolitical risks reshape trade relationships.
Japan remains one of the world's largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, and any rise in domestic yields could pull capital back home.
Even modest increases in Japanese government bond returns could pressure the long end of the U.S. curve at a moment when America is issuing record levels of debt.
For decades, the yen has served as the world's preferred funding currency because of low rates and less volatility.
If Japan's new spending plan strengthens the yen or makes it more volatile, the global carry trade could begin to unwind, tightening financial conditions.
Equities would feel the pressure first, followed by corporate credit and any asset class dependent on easy global liquidity.
If Japan manages to roll out a package, it shows that large, aging, highly indebted economies may have more room for fiscal action than previously assumed.
In that scenario, the U.S. could become the observer, and global markets watch how much spillover a shift in Japan's policy mix can create.
Alongside the fiscal package, Japan's Financial Services Agency is preparing to classify Bitcoin and other digital assets as financial products, lowering the tax rate on gains from 55% to 20%.
This shift places cryptocurrencies on similar footing as securities and broadens participation for both retail and institutional investors.
Analysts note that when Japan increases domestic spending, the yen often weakens and global liquidity improves.
Historically, Bitcoin responds early to these macro liquidity shifts.
If the package is finalized, it would be one of the strongest external tailwinds for Bitcoin heading into 2026.
Japan's cabinet is expected to approve the plan on Nov. 21, with a supplementary budget of roughly ¥14 trillion ($95 billion).
Measures include income-tax relief, utility subsidies, gasoline tax adjustments and targeted food-program support.
BTC Price Analysis (Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp breakdown that pushed price into one of its most important support zones of the year.
Buyers defended the $92,000 level for the second time in a week, but momentum remains weak.
The 20-EMA near $102,000 now acts as the first ceiling, with the 50-EMA at $107,000 and the 100-EMA at $109,000 forming a thick resistance band.
This stacked formation signals sustained downside pressure, where rallies are sold quickly rather than developing into higher highs.
A descending trendline from the rejection at $123,000 continues to guide the structure lower. Each bounce into this line has faded almost immediately.
Any recovery attempt needs a daily close above $102,000 to indicate trend exhaustion.
Until then, sellers remain in control.
The bull market support band on the weekly timeframe has flipped into resistance between $109,000 and $113,000, marking the dominant macro barrier.
Below price, the $92,000 zone is the critical support.
A clean break under this level exposes $88,000 and possibly $84,000 if liquidation flows accelerate.
The defense of this range shows long-term buyers are still active, but every rebound has been shallow.
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Posted In: $BTC
