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Semiconductor giant NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) could provide the ultimate bellwether for the stock market and tech sector when the company reports third-quarter financial results on Wednesday after market close.
• NVDA is lagging behind market performance. Get the inside scoop here.
Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Nvidia to report third-quarter revenue of $54.84 billion, up from $35.08 billion in last year's third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 12 straight quarters.
The analyst prediction would see the company post record quarterly revenue, beating the $46.74 billion posted in the second quarter.
Analysts expect Nvidia to report third-quarter earnings per share of $1.25, up from 81 cents per share in last year's third quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates in 11 straight quarters.
Guidance from the company calls for third-quarter revenue to be in a range of $52.92 billion to $55.08 billion.
Read Also: Nvidia Vs. AMD: The Gap Isn’t Closing — It’s Getting Wider
What Experts Are Saying: Nvidia reports third quarter results amid a "solid micro, choppy macro" environment, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said.
The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia with a $275 price target ahead of earnings.
Arya said Nvidia has a solid pipeline and the debate now becomes more around the macro environment.
"NVDA near-term is facing the tough task of meeting high expectations and high skepticism around AI capex, likely only resolved with broader market volatility subsides," Arya said.
The analyst said the report turns to reassurance for demand.
With concerns of a potential AI bubble, Nvidia's report comes at an interesting time, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a new investor note.
"Street awaits Godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia's earnings," Ives said.
The analyst expects Nvidia to beat Street estimates in the third quarter.
"It all comes down to gauging the AI Revolution demand story, which starts and ends with Nvidia."
On the conference call, Ives said Nvidia could show "robust demand" for Blackwell.
"We continue to believe Street estimates for Nvidia are being significantly underestimated over the next few years, given the global demand story for the AI Revolution is still in the Top of the third inning in our view."
Ives said Nvidia's earnings and guidance could be a "positive catalyst" for the tech sector heading into the end of the year.
Ives maintained an Outperform rating on Nvidia ahead of earnings with a price target of $210.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur predicts another beat and raise from Nvidia in the third quarter with strong demand from customers.
The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating with a price target of $215 ahead of the report.
"The key debates are less about the health of the demand environment and more about the ability of NVDA's sprawling supply chain and its broader supporting infrastructure to keep pace with customers' AI compute capacity rollout ambitions," Sur said.
The analyst predicts a beat and raise from Nvidia along with positive commentary from the company on the earnings call. One item of caution remains the company's supply chain capacity.
"We anticipate significant upside in shares."
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said Nvidia's earnings will take center stage this week.
"Saying this is the most important stock in the world is an understatement," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.
Woods said the average move for Nvidia after earnings is +/- 7.4%, meaning an average move could impact the entire stock market.
The market expert highlights Nvidia's large weighting in several key market indices.
Woods said the key question is whether the trend of beating expectations can continue.
Key Items to Watch: Among the key items to watch, along with the quarterly results and guidance, will be commentary about China. The company has faced restrictions on exports to China and right now, demand in the country might not be priced in as the company awaits a potential change to restrictions.
Gaming could be another area to watch, after second quarter revenue was up 14% year-over-year in the second quarter. The segment has had less importance for the company in recent years, but could be underestimated by investors.
The company's automotive segment has also proven to show strong growth in recent quarters, which could be another area to watch.
While Nvidia's data center segment will get most of the attention, gaming and automotive could be segments to watch.
As mentioned by Woods in the newsletter, Nvidia is a key holding of many top indices.
In the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 Index, Nvidia is the top holding at 8.07% of assets. Nvidia is also the top holding in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, at 9.93% of assets.
Nvidia is also a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and is the 20th largest holding in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), at 2.48% of assets. While Nvidia is the largest company in the world, the price-weighted rules of the Dow Jones Industrial Average keep the stock from commanding a larger percentage.
The semiconductor stock is also the top holding in many semiconductor and tech-specific ETFs and could impact high volatility in the funds during the week.
Nvidia is one of the rare companies that is a member of the Magnificent Seven, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The company's earnings report will be widely felt by the market this week.
NVDA Price Action: Nvidia stock is down 2.11% to $186.17 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $86.63 to $212.19. Nvidia’s stock is up 34.8% year-to-date in 2025.
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