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Goldman Sachs expects a significant wave of central-bank gold purchases for November. The bank’s outlook anticipates a continued shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.
According to Reuters, Goldman’s latest estimates indicate 64 tons in September, a significant increase from the 21 tons projected for August. The estimate supports strong buying through year-end, as emerging-market central banks continue to purchase.
Yet, a large portion of these purchases is not publicly reported. The World Gold Council estimates that as little as one-third of global central bank buying is reported to the IMF. The number is down from roughly 90% only four years ago.
China is a prime example of this trend. Official monthly disclosures show purchases of only 1.9 tons in August, 1.9 tons in July, and 2.2 tons in June. Yet few analysts believe these figures reflect actual buying.
Société Générale estimates that China could accumulate as much as 250 tons this year when measured through trade flows, making it responsible for more than one-third of global central-bank demand.
Jeff Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways, said he doesn’t attempt to estimate China’s actual gold purchases. China’s strategy is designed to reveal as little as possible.
“Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can’t. There’s just no way to know where this stuff goes and who is buying it,” he said for The Financial Times.
This opacity has forced traders to rely on indirect measures such as shipments of newly cast 400-ounce bars through London to Chinese refiners, as well as gaps between China’s production, imports, and commercial-bank inventory changes.
“It makes sense to just report the bare minimum, if need be, for fear of reprisal from the U.S. administration,” Nicky Shiels, analyst at Swiss refinery MKS Pamp, noted.
“Gold is seen as a pure USA hedge. In most emerging markets, it is in central banks’ interest not to fully disclose purchases.”
The reluctance to report gold purchases also reflects a desire to avoid front-running in an increasingly illiquid physical market. The London Bullion Market Association used to have next-day settlement. Yet, this year it reported delivery timelines as long as eight weeks.
Thus, despite a stellar gold run in 2025, institutions are betting that the outperformance continues. With tight supply and sustained central bank buying, Goldman sees the yellow metal on track toward its $4,900 target for 2026.
Price Watch: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) is up 51.43% year-to-date.
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