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A large backlog for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) could be the key to long-term success, according to an analyst ahead of the highly anticipated third-quarter financial results.
The NVDA Analyst: Stifel analyst Ruben Roy maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia and raised the price target from $212 to $250.
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The Analyst Takeaways: A recent keynote by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the company's $500 billion cumulative order book for Blackwell and Rubin.
"With consensus (and our) expectations incorporating Mr. Huang's commentary, expectations remain elevated," Roy said in a new investor note.
The analyst said the commentary has led to higher estimates for early 2028.
"We expect the near-term investor debate to remain centered on the sustainability of infrastructure investment, despite another round of hyperscaler capex increases/commentary on continued investment."
Roy said industry data points could indicate AI compute demand is high ahead of the report.
"We continue to view NVDA as best positioned to benefit."
The analyst expects Nvidia to beat estimates in the third quarter and provide optimistic guidance for the fourth quarter.
Roy said supply-side factors could be a risk for the stock in the third quarter.
The analyst said Huang's commentary shows the backlog and what might be priced into third-quarter estimates and beyond. Roy said that a backlog of $350 billion could now be the "baseline expectation," making it harder to achieve upside.
The analyst said near-term upside for Nvidia may already be priced into the stock.
"We believe that NVDA is well positioned in markets that combine to yield an overall TAM of more than $100 billion exiting 2025 and a longer-term opportunity funnel that could approach $1 trillion.
NVDA Price Action: Nvidia stock is down 2.4% to $182.08 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $86.62 to $212.19. Nvidia shares are up 31.5% year-to-date in 2025.
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Posted In: NVDA
