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Trip.com Group Ltd (NASDAQ:TCOM) is entering a new stage of growth, one driven less by post-recovery tailwinds and more by structural advantages taking hold across its global platform.
Benchmark Equity Research analyst Fawne Jiang views the company as entering a more durable expansion cycle, which leads her to reaffirm a Buy rating and raise her price target to $82 from $80.
She highlights resilient travel demand, accelerating international scale, and expanding operating leverage as the foundations of this shift.
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Trip.com's third-quarter 2025 results illustrate this momentum. The company delivered a 16% year-over-year rise in net revenue to 18.3 billion Chinese yuan ($2.580 billion), surpassing expectations across accommodations, transportation, corporate travel, and packaged tours.
Adjusted EBITDA of 6.35 billion yuan outperformed forecasts by more than 6%, while non-GAAP EPADS of $3.87 benefited from additional gains tied to asset sales. A 30% surge in Golden Week bookings and continued global market-share gains further reinforced the underlying strength management sees across the business.
Looking ahead to fourth-quarter 2025, Jiang notes management's heightened confidence in both domestic and outbound travel trends, which supported a lift in revenue guidance. She now forecasts 17% revenue growth, driven by sustained leisure and cross-border demand.
While a greater mix of international volume may compress margins in the near term, Jiang expects operating leverage in product development and general and administrative (G&A) expenses to cushion the impact.
For fiscal 2026 and beyond, Jiang views international expansion as Trip.com's most powerful growth catalyst. Low online penetration in key APAC markets, rising long-haul travel demand, and a broader set of differentiated offerings position the company to capture additional share.
Paired with ongoing AI investment and disciplined execution, she believes Trip.com is well-positioned for scalable, sustainable growth.
Jiang maintains a Buy rating and lifts her price target to $82, supported by a 16x multiple on her fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $4.43 plus net cash per share. She argues this premium reflects the company's 15–20% mid- to long-term earnings growth profile and the runway for continued global share gains.
Price Action: TCOM shares were trading higher by 2.37% to $72.57 at last check Tuesday.
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Posted In: TCOM
