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Intuit Inc (NASDAQ:INTU) is heading into the fiscal first-quarter with strong momentum in QuickBooks and TurboTax Live, even as economic pressure weighs on lower-income consumers.
• INTU is maintaining a sideways pattern. Track the latest developments here.
The company is pushing deeper into artificial intelligence-powered growth, targeting 20% annual revenue expansion by 2030 after laying out its long-term vision at Investor Day.
JPMorgan analyst Mark R. Murphy maintained an Overweight rating on Intuit with a price forecast of $750.
Murphy remained constructive on Intuit as the company heads into its fiscal first-quarter earnings, even as economic pressures hit lower-income consumers. The analyst pointed to falling savings rates, rising credit card delinquencies and weaker discretionary spending as warning signs — but still noted Intuit's long-term fundamentals as solid.
He highlighted the QuickBooks franchise as a key strength, citing strong product-market fit and continued adoption by larger businesses.
Murphy also noted momentum in TurboTax Live during the recent tax season. While certain smaller parts of the business may face a bumpier environment, the analyst noted Intuit is positioned to grow through the cycle.
Intuit recently laid out its long-term strategy at Investor Day, including its plan to integrate AI across its platform and reach 20% annual revenue growth by 2030.
Murphy viewed that target as ambitious and ahead of the company's recent growth trends in the low-teens. The analyst argued the stock reflects more modest expectations, suggesting upside if management executes.
He also acknowledged a tougher macro backdrop. Consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since 2022, and auto-loan delinquency data signals more financial stress.
In that environment, Murphy expected parts of Intuit's business to remain resilient.
About 80% of QuickBooks revenue comes from subscriptions, making it less sensitive to economic swings, as per the analyst.
Meanwhile, Credit Karma could show more volatility because it depends more on consumer financial activity, he said.
For the upcoming quarter, Murphy reminded investors that the first quarter contributed less than 5% of TurboTax annual revenue, so the focus should be on commentary around next tax season — not the numbers. The analyst also wanted signals of stabilization at Mailchimp, which has faced recent headwinds but is expected to return to double-digit growth by the end of fiscal 2026.
Web-traffic data presents a mixed picture heading into earnings, signs of improvement at Mailchimp and Credit Karma, but softer trends for TurboTax and QuickBooks. Murphy cautioned that traffic doesn't always correlate directly to Intuit's results, especially as the company shifts upmarket.
Murphy projected first-quarter revenue of $3.76 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.11.
INTU Price Action: Intuit stock is up 0.28% at $651.53 at publication on Wednesday.
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Posted In: INTU
