Nvidia Blackwell Sales Off The Chart, Walmart Earnings Powered By Value-Seeking Consumers

Author: The Arora Report | November 20, 2025 01:27pm

Jobs Report

Please click here for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Note the following:

• This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows NVDA stock bounced off the low band of zone 1 (support).
• The chart shows NVDA stock is gapping up on earnings.
• RSI on the chart shows the stock has room to run.
• Nvidia reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers.
• The strength of the demand for Nvidia chips is summed up in this quote from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI."
• In our analysis, Nvidia earnings should calm the fears of the AI bubble, at least for now.  Demand is clearly robust through 2026.  However, there is still a prospect of a slow down in 2027 and 2028.  Concerns still remain about circular financing.  Investors should also be concerned about aggressive depreciation schedules used by data center companies such as CoreWeave Inc (NASDAQ:CRWV), Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), and IREN Ltd (NASDAQ:IREN). 
• The top 20% of consumers continue to excessively spend.  However, the bottom 50% are stretched.  Value oriented consumers are increasingly drawn to Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT).  Walmart reported earnings better than the consensus and inline with whisper numbers.
• FOMC minutes show there is more support for not cutting interest rates in December than generally believed by investors prior to the release of the minutes.  Most believe that further interest rate cuts add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched.
• The jobs report was stronger than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Non-farm payrolls came at 119K vs. 50K consensus.
  • Non-farm private payrolls came at 97K vs. 58K consensus.
  • Unemployment rate came at 4.4% vs. 4.3% consensus.
  • Average work week came at 34.2 vs. 34.3 consensus.
  • Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• Initial jobless claims came at 220K vs. 228K prior.
• The foregoing data supports our position that the data does not support a rate cut in December.  However, there is intense political pressure from President Trump for the Fed to cut interest rates.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, it is important to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. 

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia stock (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound.

What To Do Now

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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