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Renowned economist David Rosenberg issued a stark warning to investors on Thursday, signaling that the S&P 500's latest slide marks the end of the market's recent bull run.
Following a breach of the critical 6,550 technical support level, Rosenberg, the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates, cautioned that the current market environment has shifted decisively, stating, "This is probably not a dip you want to buy."
The bearish call comes as the S&P 500 officially "locked in" the rally off the April lows as a completed pattern, suggesting that the upward momentum sustaining the index for much of 2025 has evaporated.
Rosenberg forecasts a potential “garden-variety” retracement of 50%, a move that would drag the benchmark index back to approximately 5,900—the level where it began the year. Such a decline would represent a drop of over 10% from the current valuations, erasing months of gains for buy-and-hold investors.
The technical deterioration began earlier in the week, setting the stage for Rosenberg's alert. On Monday, Nov. 17, the S&P 500 slipped below its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time in months, as reported by Saxo Bank.
Market technicians view the 50-day DMA as a vital gauge of near-term health. Failing to hold this line was the first major crack in the bullish thesis.
The inability of the bulls to reclaim this momentum indicator earlier in the week left the index vulnerable to a test of lower structural supports, culminating in the violation of the 6,550 level.
See Also: VIX Spikes: Should You Buy The Market Dip?
The specific support line cited by Rosenberg—6,550—is credited to Walter Murphy, a veteran market technician and recognized expert in the Elliott Wave Principle.
Murphy, formerly a senior technical analyst at Merrill Lynch and currently of Walter Murphy Global Advisors, is known for identifying pivotal price levels that dictate long-term trend changes.
By taking out Murphy's “line in the sand,” the market has arguably transitioned from a “buy the dip” regime to one of capital preservation, as per Rosenberg.
With the technical damage now confirmed by both the 50-day DMA break and the violation of Murphy's support, Rosenberg's analysis suggests that the path of least resistance is now lower. Investors hoping for a quick rebound may instead face a prolonged grind downward as the market seeks a new equilibrium near its yearly open.
The benchmark indices reversed gains to plummet during the Thursday close following September’s jobs report. The S&P 500 index closed 1.56% lower at 6,538.76 points.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, closed lower on Thursday. The SPY was down 1.52% at $652.53, while the QQQ declined 2.37% to $585.67, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The futures of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones indices were trading higher on Friday, after a sharp sell-off on Thursday.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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