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For the first time in two decades, a warning light on Wall Street is flashing bright blue.
The Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey, as reported by Fortune and Hedge Fund Tips, shows something markets haven't seen since August 2005: a majority of fund managers now believe companies are overinvesting. The line, which has stayed below zero for most of the past 20 years, suddenly shoots upward in November 2025, hitting a net 20%.
The sharp jump reflects one thing: the AI spending boom. Companies across industries are pouring billions into data centers, GPUs, model development, automation infrastructure, and AI-enabled services. But according to the 202 fund managers in BofA’s survey, managing $550 billion in assets, the spending is beginning to look excessive.
The chart's long history underscores just how unusual this moment is. After the financial crisis, fund managers consistently said corporations were too conservative, hoarding cash and underinvesting.
The survey reveals growing questions around both the magnitude and the financing of AI-driven capital expenditures. In other words, the fear is that they're borrowing too much to do it.
At the time the survey came out, markets shrugged. But this week, those jitters persisted.
A wave of volatility hit Wall Street on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq down 2.2% and the S&P 500 lower by 1.6%, as tech stocks reversed early gains. And the catalyst wasn't Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) stellar earnings—it was growing fear that the scale of AI investment itself may be unsustainable.
Then came a stark message from BCA Research strategist Peter Berezin, who warned on X that hyperscalers—including Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), could be carrying over $2.5 trillion in AI-related assets by 2030. He noted that with typical depreciation rates of around 20%, this would result in $500 billion in annual depreciation expenses—potentially surpassing the companies' combined projected profits for 2025.
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