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Short seller Citron Research, led by Andrew Left, made a prediction one year ago. The firm bet on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), but against the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR). Here are the results of the trade.
Citron Research, best known for betting against GameStop years ago, made a bet in November 2024 going long Bitcoin and short MicroStrategy, the company known as Strategy today.
"MSTR's volume has completely detached from BTC fundamentals," Citron's Andrew Left tweeted one year ago.
The investor said he was hedging a long Bitcoin position with a short MicroStrategy position.
"Much respect to @saylor, but even he must know $MSTR is overheated," Left said of the former Strategy CEO Michael Saylor, who is the current executive chairman.
Fast forward a year later and Citron is taking its victory lap.
"How did this one age? One year ago today, Citron laid out the short $MSTR / long BTC trade."
In a tweet, Citron said Strategy stock is down 68% over the last year, while Bitcoin is down 15%.
"Proud of the timing – and grateful for the luck that always plays a part."
Strategy stock fell over 16% on the day Citron announced its short position, marking its worst market performance in months. The stock has seen increased volatility over the last year with Bitcoin soaring to new all-time highs, but investors lowering the premium paid for MicroStrategy compared to its Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy shares traded between $371.84 and $543.00 on the day of Left's tweet, while Bitcoin traded between $94,132.60 and $99,014.22.
For comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, is up over the same one-year time period. Investors who put their money in the SPY would be up 11.0% over the past year.
Year-to-date in 2025, Strategy shares are down 41.5%, while Bitcoin is down 8.8%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up 13.1% year-to-date in 2025.
Part of Citron's thesis about price has played out with Bitcoin outperforming Strategy shares by a significant margin. The other part of the thesis looks to be winning as well.
"With Bitcoin investing easier than ever (ETFs, $COIN, $HOOD), MSTR's volume has completely detached from BTC fundamentals," Citron said a year ago.
The investor said there are more ways to invest in Bitcoin than before, including through Bitcoin ETFs and directly through trading platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood. Years prior, Strategy was one of the easiest ways to invest and get Bitcoin exposure and one of the few examples of a publicly traded company offering exposure.
This meant that investors who wanted exposure to Bitcoin in their investment portfolios or retirement accounts could invest in Strategy as most offerings didn't have other ways to get direct exposure.
Citron said a year ago that it had been bullish on Strategy and one of the first to tell the company was "the ultimate way to invest in Bitcoin." Citron was bullish on MicroStrategy dating back to 2020 before shares saw a significant increase in price.
Strategy is a software company that generates money from its legacy business and also makes money by betting on the future valuation of Bitcoin. Saylor tried to explain how the company's Bitcoin strategy makes money a year ago in a response to Citron.
"I think a lot of people don't understand our core business," Saylor said in a CNBC interview. "We're a Bitcoin treasury company."
Saylor said Strategy makes money by selling the volatility and recycling it back into Bitcoin.
"The thesis of the shorts is if the premium and the equity disappears, we can't make money."
Saylor said the company was borrowing at 6% and profiting with Bitcoin outperforming that with a belief that Bitcoin would go up 29% every year or more. The investor said at the time that Strategy was selling dollar bills for $3 and could be one of the most profitable companies in the United States.
"If you like Bitcoin, then then is a monster for you."
In his one year anniversary tweet of going short Strategy, Left said he still does not understand what Saylor was saying in his explanation of how the company makes money on Bitcoin.
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