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Despite a sharp pullback in Nvidia Corp‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares this month, a potential policy reversal on U.S. chip exports to China could dramatically boost the company's outlook, according to Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster.
On Friday, Reuters reported that the Donald Trump administration is considering allowing Nvidia to restart sales of its high-end H200 AI chips to China.
The Commerce Department is reportedly reviewing restrictions that previously blocked the chip over national security concerns.
The move would mark a significant shift for Nvidia, whose China business collapsed after export bans tightened.
Previously, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company's market share in the region plunged from 95% to zero, adding that he couldn't imagine "any policymaker thinking that's a good idea."
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In a video posted on social media, Munster said the potential policy change represents a "material win" for Nvidia and investors, estimating that turning H200 shipments back on could lift Wall Street's expected revenue growth from 49% to roughly 72%.
He said former Trump administration officials told him that Nvidia chips have been a central point in U.S.–China trade discussions, and China's continued pursuit of Nvidia's hardware underscores its technical advantage.
Munster referenced earlier comments from Huang that Nvidia could generate as much as $50 billion in China revenue in 2025 using compliant chips. Adding that figure to the Street's current revenue expectations — about $330 billion — explains the jump to a low-70% growth rate, he said.
Munster argued that consensus estimates are "mis-modeling" the back half of next year.
He said tough comparisons in early 2026 mask true momentum — noting that adjusting for last year's China revenue would show Nvidia's January quarter growing nearly 100%.
As comparisons ease later in the year, he said analysts still assume an unnecessary slowdown. In his view, Nvidia is positioned to grow "60% plus" even if China remains restricted, and "75% plus" if H200 exports resume.
Nvidia shares fell 0.97% Friday and are down more than 13% in November, their worst month since March, despite reporting $57 billion in third-quarter revenue — a 70% jump from last year.
Meanwhile, market commentator The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the extraordinary scale of Nvidia's performance. It noted that the chipmaker's record third-quarter revenue is more than 2.5 times the combined $22.9 billion reported by Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD).
Nvidia also delivered $31.8 billion in net income, surpassing Intel's and AMD's combined quarterly revenue by nearly $9 billion.
Since the first quarter of 2023, Nvidia's profit has surged 2,170%, while revenue has climbed 700%, compared with far more modest gains at competitors: Intel's sales rose just 7%, and AMD's increased 70% over the same period.
Kobeissi said the scale and speed of Nvidia's growth remain "unprecedented" in the semiconductor industry.
Nvidia ranks in the 98th percentile for Growth and the 92nd percentile for Quality in Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings. Click here to see how it stacks up against its peers.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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