Gemini Beating ChatGPT Could Be A Problem for Nvidia; Renewed Hopes Of Rate Cut; Positive Seasonality

Author: The Arora Report | November 24, 2025 10:24am

Problem For Nvidia

Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The stock market approached the upper band of zone 1 (support) but has not dipped in zone 1.  This is a positive.
• RSI on the chart shows the stock market is oversold.  Oversold markets tend to bounce.
• As a heads up, our model is giving a signal to deploy cash and reduce hedges.
• After New York Fed President John Williams's comments on Friday,  investors continue to buy stocks on hopes of a rate cut in December.  Investors continue to ignore other FOMC members who do not support a rate cut.
• Positive seasonality is ahead.  Historically, Thanksgiving week is a positive week.
• On several benchmarks, the new version of Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG) Gemini is beating the latest version of OpenAI's ChatGPT. This has two implications.  
  • Google might be able to keep its search dominance.
  • This is a problem for NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) because Google is using its own chips.  ChatGPT is using Nvidia's chips.  If the cost of compute for everyone using Nvidia chips is higher than the cost of compute for Google, it is ultimately negative for Nvidia as either those using Nvidia chips will lose market share or Nvidia will have to lower its profit margins.  
• The speculation is that President Trump will announce an extension of ObamaCare with some changes.  Stocks of Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC) and Oscar Health Inc (NYSE:OSCR) are flying along with other health insurers like UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) and Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM).
• In other important news, in a clinical trial Ozempic did not slow Alzheimer's progression.  This is hitting Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) stock and Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:LLY) stock.
• September Producer Price Index (PPI) and September retail sales data are scheduled to be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, it is important to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. 

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound.

What To Do Now

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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