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Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) historical top, bottom, and overall cycle structure are widely misunderstood, which is why the current cycle bears little resemblance to anything traders saw in 2021, a prominent analyst claims.
What Happened: In a new X post, analyst Kevin argues that Bitcoin's true cycle peak occurred in April 2021, not November.
He notes that nearly every major framework, technical indicators, on-chain signals, macro conditions, money flows, sentiment, and momentum, all topped in April.
The July–November 2021 move, he says, was a classic bear-market rally: low volume, weak inflows, and a failure by most altcoins to make new highs.
He also points to the heavily promoted Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, Cathie Wood Bitcoin podcast, which aired precisely at the July 2021 bottom, as evidence that the rally was more narrative-driven than structurally strong.
After the post gained traction, a trader asked Kevin whether he meant the bull market was over or just starting. Kevin clarified that he is only presenting analysis, not offering investment advice.
Also Read: Bitcoin May Become Irrelevant In The Next Bear Market, Viral Essay Argues
Why It Matters: In a recent podcast, Kevin emphasized that this cycle is fundamentally different: for the first time in Bitcoin's history, global net liquidity has been falling for multiple years — pressured by inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and quantitative tightening.
That macro squeeze has suppressed money flow, momentum, and upside potential throughout this cycle.
Looking forward, he sees two potential paths:
The key signals to watch now: inflation trends, PMI shifts, Fed rate cuts, the end of QT, and the appointment of a new Fed chair.
Kevin concluded that Bitcoin's setup looks better than prior week based on improving market conditions. Spot volume is rising while perp volume and open interest are declining. Funding rates are slightly lower, and premiums, still negative, are starting to recover.
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Image: Shutterstock
Posted In: $BTC
