Is Bitcoin's Rally Real? 5 Reasons Why It Is — And 5 Reasons Why It's Not

Author: Khyathi Dalal | December 03, 2025 01:56pm

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) next move may depend on whether bullish forces can prevail or if buyers have exhausted their potential.

What Happened: According to a prominent market commentator, the five bullish drivers keeping Bitcoin's uptrend alive are:

• Institutional Expansion: Vanguard, BlackRock and others continue widening access to crypto-linked products, deepening liquidity and credibility.
• ETF Structural Demand: Spot Bitcoin ETFs remain a persistent inflow engine capable of rapidly reviving momentum.
• Macro Tailwinds: Looming Fed rate cuts and looser policy into 2026 tilt macro conditions in Bitcoin's favour.
• Post-Halving Scarcity: The 2024 supply halving remains a powerful multi-year catalyst.
• Long-Term Adoption Curve: Analysts still model substantial upside, as high as +200%, as Bitcoin matures globally.

But major headwinds threaten the rally's durability:

• Cycle Peak Risk: The traditional 4-year halving cycle may have already topped.
• Technical Breakdown: A drop below the 50WMA points to weakening trend structure.
• ETF Outflows: Rapid institutional withdrawals during volatility show how quickly sentiment can reverse.
• Large Corrections: A 36% pullback from the $126,000 peak underscores ongoing fragility.
• Slowing Exponential Growth: As Bitcoin scales, parabolic upside naturally compresses.

The bull case is alive — but increasingly fragile.

Institutional adoption, supply dynamics and macro shifts support continuation, yet cycle fatigue, technical weakness and ETF-driven volatility threaten to break the structure.

Bitcoin may still grind higher, but the era of effortless, vertical rallies is likely behind us.

Also Read: ‘We Are Not Bitcoin Traders, We’re Bitcoin Investors,’ Says Strategy CEO Fong Lee

What's Next: In another X post, CryptoSeth notes Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight $98,000–$120,000 band since May, with three separate fake-outs that flushed overleveraged longs and trapped aggressive bulls.

The capitulation wick to $80,000 delivered a historic long liquidation that left nearly everyone who bought since May underwater.

By sentiment and positioning, this already resembles a max pain environment: retail has capitulated, liquidity is thin, and participation is at cycle lows.

Regardless of the next move, Seth argues the psychological damage typical of major market resets has already been done.

Read Next:

• Ex-SEC Chair Gary Gensler Warns Crypto Remains ‘Speculative, Volatile’

Posted In: $BTC