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As Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) dropped almost 5% on Friday, a new research suggests the network’s long-term valuation may potentially grow into the trillions.
The research, highlighted by longtime pseudonymous Ethereum investor DeFi Dad, is authored by blockchain analyst William Mougayar and challenges how markets currently value Ethereum.
The core argument is that investors price Ethereum like a revenue-generating technology company, focusing on fees, issuance, and short-term cash flows.
The report instead frames Ethereum as public infrastructure, comparable to Internet base layers such as TCP/IP, where most economic value appears outside direct monetization.
The model breaks Ethereum's value into three layers that traditional metrics often overlook.
Captured value includes transaction fees, miner-extractable value, ETH burn, and staking economics tied directly to the network.
Flow value measures the economic activity settled on Ethereum, including stablecoins, DeFi collateral, tokenized assets, and payments.
Trust surplus reflects the premium assigned to Ethereum as a neutral, global settlement layer that institutions can rely on without centralized control.
Aggregating these layers places Ethereum's current intrinsic value between $2 trillion and $6 trillion, with a conservative present-day estimate closer to $1 trillion.
The report extends the framework into a long-run scenario, assuming Ethereum evolves into what it calls a "Global Trust Underlayer" for finance.
Under that assumption, valuation expands toward $10 trillion to $20 trillion by around 2035, mirroring how the Internet's economic impact compounded decades after its launch.
Supporters of the thesis argue Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and other Layer-1 networks reflects market impatience rather than structural weakness.
ETH Price Action (Source: TradingView)
While the long-term thesis circulates, Ethereum's short-term technical structure remains under pressure.
ETH was rejected again at a falling downtrend line that has capped price since October, with each rally into that zone meeting heavy selling.
The token now sits near the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $3,006, which has acted as key support during previous pullbacks.
A sustained hold above $3,000 keeps the November lows intact, while a breakdown opens downside risk toward $2,620.
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